Interesting stuff from Chelston, but it is worth taking out the five clubs leaving the division and adding in the five joining:
1
Woking 2,024 relegated
2
Torquay United 1,731 relegated
3
Dulwich Hamlet 1,381 promoted
4
Billericay Town 1,057 promoted
5 Dartford 1,023
6 Chelmsford City 861
7 Wealdstone 847
8 St Albans City 755
9 Bath City 691
10
Slough Town 666 promoted
11 Chippenham Town 600
12 Hampton & Richmond 566
13 Welling United 533
14 Eastbourne Borough 517
15 Hemel Hempstead 509
16 Weston-super-Mare 495
17 Truro City 469
18 Oxford City 319
19 East Thurrock United 295
20 Gloucester City 284
21 Hungerford Town 267
22 Concord Rangers 262
www.nonleaguematters.co.uk/divisions/3/Now of course it does not necessary follow that clubs with the biggest crowds will do best, but it is fair to say that clubs with the biggest crowds might reasonably be expected to do best.
All things being equal, bigger crowds = bigger income = bigger playing budget = better players = better results.
All things aren't equal though. Some clubs have financial backing, some don't. Some have other significant revenue streams, some less so. Some clubs are in a geographically advantageous location, some are not. Some have good managers, some do not. Some have good luck, some do not.
I reckon the top ten in the above list is a pretty fair guide to who will be "up there" next season though - and the five newcomers to the division should feature prominently.
I would make Woking favourites. Biggest crowds, bang in the centre geographically and they have nicked Hampton & Richmond's manager who knows both the division and the area backwards.
I would be pleasantly suprised if Torquay were to clinch the one automatic promotion spot, but we really should be in the play-off places and hopefully the top three. I must admit to having very little confidence in Gary Owers but sincerely hope that he proves me wrong.
Billericay will be the biggest spenders. Heavily backed by their wide boy owner, they had a ridiculous playing budget last season. Rumours are that they will halve that next season, but still spend comfortably more than anyone else in the division. That should allow them to challenge strongly for top spot - but only if the wide boy can resist the temptation to stick his fingers in and play at being a football manager.
Whether Dulwich Hamlet can also compete strongly for the title may depend on how distracted they are by the troubles over their ground. Slough will be hoping to be around the pay-off zone.
Dartford and Chelmsford both just missed out last season and are both almost certain to be in the thick of the fight for top spot again.
The other three in the attendance top ten are Bath, St Albans and Wealdstone. All just missed out on the play-offs last season but will be looking to do better next.
The other three unsuccessful play-off clubs last season were Hampton & Richmond, Hemel Hempstead and Truro. All three out-performed their attendance expectation last season but will struggle to repeat the trick - particularly as Hampton have lost their manager to Woking.
You can bet that one or two of the attendance top ten will fail to live up to expectation. I am not sure who but do hope that it isn't us. Equally, one or two badly attended clubs will over-achieve and mix it with the bigger boys. Could be Truro again or could be a surprise package.
