The Ashes 2010/11

Aussie, I totally agree with you. Despite the optimism of the English media, I don't believe England are going to win the Ashes this winter unless the Aussies hand them to us on a plate and that seems very unlikely.

A look at the English squad will show why:

Batsmen:
Andrew Strauss (captain, Middlesex)
Alastair Cook (vice-captain, Essex)
Jonathan Trott (Warwickshire)
Kevin Pietersen (Hampshire)
Eoin Morgan (Middlesex)
Ian Bell (Warwickshire)
Paul Collingwood (Durham)
Matt Prior (wk, Sussex)
Steven Davies (wk, Surrey)

Fast Bowlers:
Stuart Broad (Nottinghamshire)
James Anderson (Lancashire)
Steven Finn (Middlesex)
Chris Tremlett (Surrey)
Tim Bresnan (Yorkshire)

Spinners:
Graeme Swann (Nottinghamshire)
Monty Panesar (Sussex).

We have two major issues: we have too many batsmen who are off-form to the extent that we cannot be relied upon to score 300 with six batsmen, so we have to play seven. That leaves us with only three front-line pace bowlers and Graeme Swann, a unit that I don't feel is capable of taking 20 wickets in a Test Match this winter and, as we all know, you cannot win a Test Match unless you take 20 wickets (notwithstanding "retired hurt"s!)

All summer we have heard about how well Jimmy Anderson has been bowling but that is due to the swing he can get in certain conditions and he won't get very much swing, if any, with a Kookaburra ball on the hard Australian pitches. He'll bowl well, but not as well as he does in conditions more suited to his strengths.
Steve Finn is tall and bowls accurately so could get some results, but might find the intensity of an Ashes tour too much this time around. I feel he could be very effective in four years time but not this tour, although I am hopeful that he will follow the example set by India's Ishant Sharma a couple of years ago.
Stuart Broad should blossom in Australia but seems strangely susceptible to being wound up and if there are any awards in World cricket for spotting any opponent's weakness, Australia have been winning them all for decades. Broad will come under attack from the Australians who will try to rattle him as soon as they can. He could be our best bowler down under if he can control his emotions and concentrate on the next ball rather than the previous one; or he could unravel completely and end up with numbers like Steve Harmison last time round.
Swann is world class but its unfair to expect him to carry the attack. He can dominate at one end but needs some sort of help at the other end to be most effective. I have no great hopes for Tremlett or Breslan, the latter being the wrong type of bowler for Australian conditions in my opinion. Monty has bowled well this summer for Sussex, but I can't see where England would want to bowl two spinners, so he is very much Swann's back-up.

Of our batsmen, two worry me the most.
Alastair Cook is, in my eyes, an exceptionally gifted cricketer and reliable opener who has a tendency to fish outside his off-stump too often. You can bet your last plastic dollar that Australia will be bowling just short of a length and just wide of a line to tempt him into nicking the ball to first slip. I sometimes wonder if he is over-coached by Graham Gooch as he has been doing that all summer, looking more and more nervous. Then, in the 2nd innings at Trent Bridge he looked relaxed and in control, breezing to an emphatic 110. He's feast or famine at the moment and I am concerned that he will be caught behind in 7 innings this winter, for less than 20 each time.
KP is completely out of touch at the moment: he hasn't played enough cricket this summer, for his own reasons as much as any, and he appears to have greater priorities than playing cricket. He looks like he needs an Ashes hundred to get him back on line, but that seems as far away as the moon until he (hopefully) starts playing more county cricket next summer. But he hasn't got a county for next summer, he hasn't wanted to play for his county this summer, he's committed to living in London and not travelling much further afield than Lord's (who don't appear to want him) and The Oval. Maybe the Ashes will get him focussed again, but at the moment he is a poor shadow of the exceptionally gifted player that he has been. We need a fully-firing KP to win the Ashes over there and, while I wouldn't want to see an England team without him, there's no doubt in my mind that he's not in the side on form but due to potential, which he seems to be currently unable to reach.
I'd happily take Bell over Morgan: Morgan's a very good player but, rather like Finn, I think this tour isn't the one where he shows his talent. However, I can see England choosing Morgan for the first two tests and only bringing Bell in for Perth.

I saw Australia at Lord's this summer in the Spirit of Cricket Test against Pakistan. At times they looked good, but overall I thought they were nothing special. I felt Pakistan could have beaten them but chose to throw their wickets away to Marcus North who looked pedestrian at best. I was at the Melbourne and Sydney Tests in 2006/7, so I know that Australia play much better at home against England than they do in India or against Pakistan at Lord's, for example. They aren't the quality of team now that they they were four years ago, but who would be without Warne, McGrath and Langer.

Having said that, as average as the Australian batting line-up appears I can't see England take 20 of their wickets more than once and as ordinary as their bowling attack appears I can't see England scoring more than 550 in two innings against more than once. Hopefully that will happen in the same Test!

It won't be 5-0 this time, but I can see Australia winning in Brisbane and Sydney, maybe England in Adelaide. 2-1 with the others drawn.

I hope I'm proved wrong and we win 1-0, or even draw all five Tests and retain the urn.

I have to add that it was rather ironic that the first time I ever saw the urn was at Melbourne in 2006 given that the MCC has for years said that it was far too fragile to travel all that way. Clearly that wasn't the case, but I'm still not sure its sturdy enough to be handed to you, Aussie!