Will we do an Oxford

Things are a bit different to Oxford. They had financial probs and needed to sell. We should be financially viable. We have budgeted for lower crowds than we got, we had the cup run and the bbc tv rights.

We are strengthening the team and although it will be a hard slog i would expect to see us there abouts.

After we signed Matt Green I visited an OUFC forum to see what their fans thought. This link: www.oxfordshireforums.co.uk/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=80376 gives you some idea of the potential Green has.

However what really struck me was the fans shock and anger that Oxford United could not compete with Torquay. Initially I was amused, after all we are in the same league, but after a little thought I realised that they were right, all things being equal, given the attendances at Oxford, if Oxford and another conference club both want the same player, Oxford should be able to make the best financial offer. Their fans reaction to Green signing for us suggests that they wanted his signature, and there is no indication that he was unhappy at Oxford. Therefore I suggest that TUFC made Green a better offer.

Why then could Oxford not compete with us?

This Guardian article throws some light: www.guardian.co.uk/football/2008/may/28/3?gusrc=rss&feed=football

Oxford pay Kassam £400,000 rent for the stadium, and receive no revenues from the advertising or food and drink sales.

A quick calculation (below) shows how this almost negates Oxfords attendance advantage.

In the calculation I have assumed certain percentages of children and students, and have assumed that fans would buy in advance rather than pay a premium on the day. Obviously this skews the calculation, I have mitigated this by not adjusting for OAPs, or the very significant season ticket discounts.

Additionally I have assumed that attendees are equally spread, having visited the Kassam, my impression has always been that a disproportionate number of fans are in the cheaper home end. This probably cancels out some of Oxfords increased potential for corporate deals.

I have not analysed the effect of OUFC not receiving money from advertising or refreshments, as there is no data available.

I bring these matters t light, to highlight that Oxford are very much as unique case, I do not feel that the successes or failures of Oxford United, provide many significant lessons for the rest of the conference.


Calculations


Number of attendees required to pay the rent:

Number of fans for rent=Rent/ (estimated income per fan* estimate of number of games)

My estimate of income per fan:

Average price (advance, excluding executive area) = c15.80adult, 8.25 child, 12.25 student

Assuming 25% child admittance,10% student, and fans spread evenly between cheap and expensive areas: average revenue from a fan: 13.56, Less VAT: 11.54

Number of attendees required to pay the rent:
=400,000/(25*11.54)

=1386

The difference betweens Oxfords average and ours: 1603

I don't think the rent is high.

If you spend say 15m building an asset, 400k pa is less than a 3% return, seems low rather than high.

The problem is the ground is to big for Oxfords needs