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Post by Budleigh on Apr 7, 2009 7:59:07 GMT
Football, as in life, is full of 'if's'... but now we have the biggest 'if'of the season as far as automatic promotion is concerned.
Saturday is now possibly the biggest day of our season...
'If' we beat Crawley and Histon beat Burton then for the first time the championship is in our own hands. (If tonight's game goes our way, see below)
To make sure we play Burton on that last day of the season for the right to go up we would then need a minimum two wins and a draw and need to score a maximum 3 more goals than them. (Assuming we were to only win by one goal this weekend & they lose by the same, any more either way and obviously the amount decreases) For this scenario we will probably have to win the game in hand (rather than it be the draw) so that will add to the goal difference. Of course, this is also assuming that after Saturday Burton win their next two games before reaching Plainmoor, should they slip up in one or the other it all changes again in our favour.
Whatever, a win Saturday with Burton losing means it is in our hands, albeit still quite a challenge. But....
...there is the small matter of Histon who could blow it all out of the water should they then go on, after beating Burton, to win their game in hand over us. But they have to win their game at Wrexham tonight otherwise this would still put the season in our hands although we'd have to win those middle three games rather than two wins and a draw, assuming Histon then win all their remaining games. One of those Histon games is at home to Weymouth so we probably have to give them the three points for that one but they finish away to Crawley on the last day and have a tough run-in having to play those five 'middle' games in a sequence that sees them play 5 times in eleven days. A tough call.
It may sound complicated but when it comes down to it a win on Saturday allied to Burton losing and it's near enough in our hands to claim the title...
And Jon, I'm hoping that come Sunday morning i'm not getting out my big red felt pen and writing B*****cks across all this in time honoured Torquay United supporting tradition!
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Post by ospelgull on Apr 7, 2009 8:10:33 GMT
Budleigh,
A lot of "if's" in your post. Plus you forget about Kidderminster, If they win all their 7 games they'll probably end up as champions.
Keep the dream alive!
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rjdgull
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Post by rjdgull on Apr 7, 2009 8:16:19 GMT
Hopefully, as well as keeping to our tradition of last day nail biting showdowns there will be a huge crowd at Plainmoor this Saturday as well.  With a potential championship showdown at our last home fixture, I wonder if some sort of priority voucher will be issued at this match to ensure that us more regular fans are able to comfortably get a ticket? |
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Post by Budleigh on Apr 7, 2009 8:30:17 GMT
A lot of 'ifs' but realistically there's only one, we win on saturday, Burton lose then it is very much in our hands. I was trying to paint the hardest case scenario above!
I think Kidderminster have too much to do, remembering that they have to play Burton so something has to give there, and they have five of those seven games away from home including Histon, so something has to give there as well. They have to visit Forest Green and Stevenage, both going fairly well at the moment. And starting tonight they play four games in seven days... game, day off, game, day off, game, day off, game, with all this weeks away from home! Sorry, but I just can't see Kiddie getting all seven wins, which would have to include those five away's.
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Post by pikeygull on Apr 7, 2009 8:40:05 GMT
I think you need to add a Stevenage win over Cambridge tonight as well. Cambridge have the easiest run in of all of the teams although fewer games to play. We can't afford to slip up as Cambridge would be able to take advantage of any dropped points.
My God this is getting exciting isn't it. I can't do anything but look at league tables and fixture lists from now until April 26th. And I move house in May
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tufc01
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Post by tufc01 on Apr 7, 2009 12:04:51 GMT
Budleigh, A lot of "if's" in your post. Plus you forget about Kidderminster, [glow=yellow,2,300]If they win all their 7 games they'll probably end up as champions. [/glow] Keep the dream alive! I think this applies to all of the teams in the top 5. If the unlikely event that any of them win ALL of their remaining fixtures you would expect them to go up as Champions. |
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tufc01
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Post by tufc01 on Apr 7, 2009 12:07:51 GMT
I think you need to add a Stevenage win over Cambridge tonight as well. Cambridge have the easiest run in of all of the teams although fewer games to play. We can't afford to slip up as Cambridge would be able to take advantage of any dropped points. My God this is getting exciting isn't it. [glow=yellow,2,300]I can't do anything but look at league tables and fixture lists from now until April 26th[/glow]. And I move house in May Glad i'm not the only one  |
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Jon
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Post by Jon on Apr 7, 2009 12:15:44 GMT
And the results of the pools panel are :
Forest Green v Kidderminster 2
Stevenage v Cambridge Utd 2
Wrexham v Histon X
Ebbsfleet United v Kidderminster 2
Altrincham v Kidderminster 2
Burton Albion v Histon X
Cambridge Utd v Eastbourne 1
Torquay v Crawley Town 1
Histon v Rushden & D'monds 1
Kettering v Cambridge Utd 1
Kidderminster v Burton Albion X
Salisbury v Torquay 2
Histon v Ebbsfleet United 1
Burton Albion v Oxford Utd X
Histon v Kidderminster 1
Salisbury v Cambridge Utd 2
Stevenage v Torquay X
Barrow v Torquay X
Histon v Weymouth 1
Stevenage v Kidderminster 2
Cambridge Utd v Altrincham 1
Crawley Town v Histon X
Kidderminster v Kettering 1
Torquay v Burton Albion 1
That gives :
Burton 88 points
Cambridge 88 points
Histon 88 points
Kidderminster 88 points
Torquay 88 points
Down to goal difference then :
Burton +29
Cambridge +29
Kidderminster +29
Torquay +29
Histon +36
Histon champions on goal difference.
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Fonda
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Post by Fonda on Apr 7, 2009 12:55:50 GMT
Our next couple of games are indeed massive. 2 wins, allied to a few of our competitors dropping some points over the same period, and by Monday night we could be looking at something quite unprecedented! Saturdays game is exactly the type we tend to find most difficult. Crawley are no pushovers, but there will understandably be an expectancy from the Plainmoor crowd. That can quickly turn to frustration if things don’t go well from the outset. Patience is the key, from the players on the pitch and the fans on the pop. If we start slowly, get behind the team not on their backs. A win will surely result in a huge (relatively speaking!) following at Salisbury. A win there and suddenly we’re riding a tide of emotion to the title! Even I’m getting carried away – things must be going well!
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Post by petejones on Apr 7, 2009 12:59:35 GMT
That gives : Burton 88 points Cambridge 88 points Histon 88 points Kidderminster 88 points Torquay 88 points Down to goal difference then : Burton +29 Cambridge +29 Kidderminster +29 Torquay +29 Histon +36 Histon champions on goal difference. has anyone EVER seen anything like that? i know it's only predictions and a lot will change but that's also not beyond the realms of possibility and is astonishing. the BSP - the most exciting league in the world (TM) ?? ;D |
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midlandstufc
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Post by midlandstufc on Apr 7, 2009 13:04:39 GMT
The only thing Huge in Plainmoor this Saturday is the content of my trousers!
(Unfortunately, it will be in the back of my trousers - as I will have dropped my load with the sheer excitement of being back home for the first time this season. I hope you have room for a funny spakeing exile!).
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Post by aussie on Apr 7, 2009 16:54:42 GMT
And bring your clothes pegs! |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Apr 7, 2009 18:24:57 GMT
BudleighGull I have to agree with others and say there are lots of Ifs in your post and I don't really do Ifs. If I did I would be saying If we had not played midfield players as defenders in our first seven games that I believe I'm right in saying, only got us five points. then we would now be top and only needing to win one more game or even two?
What will be will be in the end and the only thing that worries me a lot is that we have so many times this season took two steps forward, only to then take one backward step.We have been on yet another good run and one in my view that would have been even better, if we had now drawn a few games we might have expected to win, using your Ifs, it would now be in our own hands and not needing other results to go our way.
I also have one more worry, not about the team as I feel they will do everything in their power to get the required results. My worry is the fans and I'll tell you why, it seems to me that expectation levels have risen far too high again and while we should all remain positive and believe, we need to be careful not to build up our hope far too high.
Who knows what we can expect on the last day of the season, it won't happen but we could now lose all the games we have left and find Stevenage nicking our play-off place. It could be us just playing to make sure of our play-off place.
Or we could be playing to go up as champions, if that was the case it could be us dancing on the pitch to the music of the samba band, or us walking out of the ground watching the Burton fans celebrating. We would then have very mixed feelings, sad and disappointed we did not win the game and go up as champions, but still happy that it was not all over and we still had another chance.
Don't you just love football? one thing I do know, we as TUFC fans deserve to have a happy summer this year, that has not been the case for the last two summers, so I'll forget the Ifs but say its going to be third time lucky for a happy summer.
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Post by aussie on Apr 7, 2009 18:32:47 GMT
One minor point, the expectation levels have risen mainly off the back of two very good performances witnessed by alot of hopefull people, we just have to hope they can take the other side of football just as well as they have taken the better side! Thats football as you say Dave and long may it live! Some times it`s just pure delight and other times it really sucks, at the moment we should enjoy the good bit that is happening.  |
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Post by Budleigh on Apr 7, 2009 19:29:24 GMT
Sorry about all the 'ifs'... what I was doing was trying to paint the picture for those who may not have sat down as I did over numerous cups of tea and tried to work out the various options available. That's why I tried to simplify in my summing up at the end with the more obvious scenario... and i'll reiterate it... If we win on saturday and Burton lose there's suddenly the reality that our season is, for the first time, very much in our hands and we are in a position we've not be in previously. That is, keep the good run going for the three games following and we are likely to be playing Burton on the last day for the league title. Of course it can all change but surely that's the beauty of football as aussie so rightly points out. I was getting across that for the first time we may find the ultimate prize is in our own hands, not that of others.
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